It’s true that the Ukrainian counteroffensive debuted with conspicuous setbacks and hasn’t advanced as much as hoped. Moreover, land seized by Russia earlier has been used to strike ever deeper into Ukraine, making restoring defensible borders an existential concern. But Kyiv got the ammunition needed to sustain the counteroffensive longer while awaiting expanded factory production of conventional shells in 2024. Putin miscalculated disastrously when he invaded in Ukraine, so he’s now hoping to outlast Western support for Ukraine to rescue what spoils he can. But failing to do so now could entail the US, Europe and Ukraine paying a much higher price later.

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